Determinants of Offensive Scoring Efficiency in the Turkish Super League: A Linear Mixed-Model Approach

Türkiye Süper Ligi’nde Hücum Gol Verimliliğinin Belirleyicileri: Doğrusal Karma Model Yaklaşımı

 Hüseyin Topçu

*Correspondence: Hüseyin Topçu huseyintopcu@uludag.edu.tr
¹Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Sport Sciences, Department of Physical Education and Sport, Bursa, Turkey, ORCID: 0000-0003-0623-883X

Doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.191840693

https://www.ijoss.org/Archive/v3-i1/ijoss-Volume3-issue1-33.pdf

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Abstract

Contemporary football performance analysis has moved beyond possession volume toward efficiency-based indicators that better reflect underlying performance capacity. This study examined contextual and temporal determinants of Offensive Scoring Efficiency (OSE; goals per minute of possession) in the Turkish Super League, with particular emphasis on match flow characteristics. Using a retrospective longitudinal cohort design, 680 team–match observations from 19 teams from the 2024–2025 season were analyzed. Ball-in-play time (effective playing time), team final league rank, and opponent final rank were included as fixed effects in a linear mixed-effects model with team-specific random intercepts (REML; Satterthwaite degrees of freedom). Mean OSE was 0.062 ± 0.055, while mean effective playing time was 48.89 ± 4.16 minutes. Team final rank was a significant negative predictor of OSE (B = −0.011, p = 0.003), indicating reduced scoring efficiency with lower team quality. Effective playing time was also inversely associated with OSE (B = −0.002, p = 0.007), suggesting that prolonged continuous play may constrain time-adjusted offensive productivity. Opponent final rank demonstrated a positive trend (B = 0.006, p = 0.055), reflecting higher efficiency against lower-ranked opposition. These results indicate that offensive scoring efficiency in elite football is shaped by both team quality and the temporal structure of match play. Importantly, greater effective playing time was associated with lower scoring efficiency, highlighting the potential role of match fragmentation and set-piece frequency in facilitating offensive output. The present findings support the use of efficiency-based metrics and mixed-effects modeling to better capture biologically and contextually grounded performance dynamics across competitive seasons.

Keywords Football; possession; offensive scoring efficiency; ball-in-play time; linear mixed model

Öz

Günümüzde futbol performans analizi, topa sahip olma süresinin miktarından ziyade, performans kapasitesini daha iyi yansıtan verimlilik temelli göstergelere doğru yönelmiştir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye Süper Ligi’nde Hücum Gol Verimliliğinin (OSE; topa sahip olunan dakika başına gol sayısı) bağlamsal ve zamansal belirleyicilerini, özellikle maç akışı özelliklerine odaklanarak incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Retrospektif boylamsal kohort tasarımı kullanılarak, 2024–2025 sezonunda mücadele eden 19 takıma ait toplam 680 takım-maç gözlemi analiz edilmiştir. Oyunun akışta kaldığı süre (etkin oyun süresi), takımın sezon sonu lig sırası ve rakibin sezon sonu lig sırası, takım bazlı rastgele kesişimler içeren doğrusal karma etkili modelde sabit etkiler olarak modele dahil edilmiştir (REML; Satterthwaite serbestlik dereceleri). Ortalama hücum gol verimliliği 0.062 ± 0.055 olarak bulunurken, ortalama etkin oyun süresi 48.89 ± 4.16 dakika olarak hesaplanmıştır. Takımın sezon sonu lig sırası, hücum gol verimliliğinin anlamlı bir negatif yordayıcısı olarak belirlenmiştir (B = −0.011, p = 0.003); bu durum, takım kalitesi düştükçe gol verimliliğinin azaldığını göstermektedir. Etkin oyun süresi de hücum gol verimliliği ile ters yönde ilişkili bulunmuştur (B = −0.002, p = 0.007); bu bulgu, kesintisiz oyun süresinin uzamasının zaman uyarlanmış hücum üretkenliğini sınırlayabileceğini düşündürmektedir. Rakibin sezon sonu lig sırası ise pozitif yönde bir eğilim göstermiştir (B = 0.006, p = 0.055); bu durum, daha düşük sıralamadaki rakiplere karşı daha yüksek verimlilik elde edildiğini yansıtmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, elit düzey futbolda hücum gol verimliliğinin hem takım kalitesi hem de maçın zamansal yapısı tarafından şekillendirildiğini göstermektedir. Özellikle daha uzun etkin oyun süresinin daha düşük gol verimliliği ile ilişkili bulunması, maçın parçalanması ve duran top sıklığının hücum çıktısını kolaylaştırıcı bir rol oynayabileceğine işaret etmektedir.  Mevcut bulgular, verimlilik temelli ölçütlerin ve karma etkili modelleme yaklaşımlarının, rekabetçi sezonlar boyunca performans dinamiklerini biyolojik ve bağlamsal açıdan daha gerçekçi biçimde yakalamada önemli bir araç olduğunu desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler Futbol; topa sahip olma; hücum gol verimliliği; oyunda kalma süresi (etkin oyun süresi); doğrusal karma model

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